All the talk about tariffs finally got into Dan Blanchard’s head.
“I have a one-year-old who goes through a lot of diapers,” said Blanchard, senior associate director of research at the Yale Center for Customer Insights. “So personally I’ve stocked up on diapers.”
His sudden rush to the store isn’t based on insider knowledge about the diaper supply chain. It’s based on emotion. The business world has a term for when consumers panic buy, they call it scarcity mindset.
“Where they might start buying more now thinking that it might not be available to them a few months from now and will bring that spending forward in a way that they otherwise wouldn’t have,” he said.
All the tariff chatter, and the idea that almost everything we consumer will be affected by the taxes, can feel chaotic and confusing — especially as we inch closer to higher prices at checkout. Some companies, like Home Depot, aren’t planning on hiking prices because of tariffs. Meanwhile, others like Walmart, have announced they will soon.
“That signals to everyone else in the industry when they can start to also raise prices,” said Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State, who thinks we’ll see other retailers join in as we creep closer to the end of the 90-day tariff pause. “So if you were gonna plan on replacing your car this year, don’t wait ‘til September. Go out and do it now.”
Other big ticket items to think about buying now are kitchen appliances, furniture and electronics.
“If you have kids who are going to college in the fall and you know that you’re going to buy a new notebook computer for them, now might be a good time to do it,” said Willy Shih, a professor of management practice at Harvard.
A lot of electronics and other complex goods are made in China. It’s why Shih ordered a fancy telephoto lens he’d had his eye on, for bird photography. For smaller items, it could be worth stocking up on specialty products, like French wine or Himalayan salt.
But experts say it’s best not to go overboard and buy more than you can reasonably store or use. And tariffs shouldn’t tempt you into hastily making a large purchase that would normally take more deliberation.
“It’s easier for consumers to disproportionately focus on immediate costs and savings,” said Blanchard. Instead, they should think about the long term financial picture.
If you spend more than you can pay off, credit card interest can cancel out any tariff savings. Plus, spending a lot early in the year can throw off your budget. By the end of the year, you might have accidentally spent more altogether.
And then there’s the elephant in the room: the potential for a recession. When the future is murky, it’s risky to take on debt.
“[That] can be harder to pull out of especially in an economic situation where, you know, some people might not have jobs,” said Blanchard.
