The engine of this economy — consumers — slowed in May. Consumer spending is responsible for more than two-thirds of gross domestic product in the U.S.
The gauge of the engine is, in this case, retail sales, which declined 0.9% from April, according to data out Tuesday morning from the Census Bureau. That was a bigger drop than analysts were expecting.
Consumers pulled back especially on vehicles, down 3.5%, and on restaurant meals, down nearly 1%.
No matter how much of a planner you might be, some purchases just don’t require months of shopping around and budgeting.
“You want bananas, you have to buy bananas in the moment,” said Anirban Basu, CEO of Sage Policy Group. He said for big ticket items, consumers are more strategic. In March and April, for example, people bought new cars and stocked up on building materials.
“Consumers bought earlier in the year to try to avoid tariff pricing,” he said.
But all of that pull-forward purchasing seems to be over. By May, sales of cars and building materials were way down.
As for everything else? Rick Miller, a partner at Big Chalk Analytics, said if you bought big things ahead of tariffs, “That may leave you a little bit less money to go spend on other retail items.”
Because this stems from a one-off race to beat the import taxes, “the downtick in the data this morning doesn’t necessarily frighten me,” Miller said.
But a lot of people in this economy are still feeling cautious, said Jessica Ramirez, co-founder of the Consumer Collective, a retail consultancy.
“Consumers are starting to save more. They’re not necessarily spending,” she said.
Plus, companies including Walmart, Ford, Adidas, and Best Buy all announced they will raise prices because of tariffs.
“I don't think that the consumer is gonna go on a shopping spree. They will probably laser focus on what they need,” she said.
Ramirez said that could leave them with less discretionary spending for, say, meals in restaurants.